Al-Shabaab Gains Spark Alarm as Uganda Seeks Reinforcements to Prevent Somalia Collapse
KAMPALA/MOGADISHU – Uganda’s Defence Minister Jacob Marksons Oboth has raised the alarm over escalating Al-Shabaab attacks in Somalia, urging for immediate troop reinforcements to protect recent gains made in stabilizing the region.
Speaking during a high-level African Union Troop-Contributing Countries (TCCs) meeting in Kampala, Oboth warned that Al-Shabaab’s renewed territorial offensives could unravel years of hard-fought progress and destabilize the Horn of Africa.
“Terrorism remains a serious threat to Somalia and the entire region,” Oboth stated. “We risk losing the strategic advantage we’ve worked so hard to secure.”
His remarks came shortly after Al-Shabaab briefly overran Wargaadhi, the second-largest Somali military base in Middle Shabelle, just days after the fall of Adan Yabaal, the region’s former government stronghold. These towns form a critical supply corridor for central bases like Eel-Dheer and Masagaway, which are now also under threat.
The ongoing violence poses a significant challenge to the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), currently preparing to hand over security duties to Somali forces through the new African Union Stabilisation Support Mission (AUSSOM).
Uganda’s Proposed Action Plan
To avert a broader collapse, Oboth proposed forming a TCC-Somalia Peer-Review Mechanism under President Yoweri Museveni’s leadership, supported by the African Union Commission. He also called for immediate financial assistance from the AU Peace Fund and broader backing from international stakeholders including the UN, EU, UK, and the US.
AU Commission Chair Mahmoud Ali Youssouf echoed the urgency, emphasizing that without predictable funding, the transition to AUSSOM is doomed to fail. He appealed for just $190 million for 2025, a fraction of what piracy once cost the global economy.
President Museveni emphasized addressing deeper political issues like tribalism and identity politics, which continue to hamper the formation of a cohesive national army in Somalia.
Somalia’s Foreign Minister Ahmed Moallim Fiqi acknowledged the worsening situation and said reinforcements are essential. “We have structures, we have a growing army—but we cannot win this alone,” he admitted.
Challenges on the Ground
Veteran journalist Harun Maruf recently highlighted internal dysfunction as a key reason behind the military setbacks. He cited inconsistent leadership, sidelining of effective local militias like the Ma’awisley, and overreliance on undertrained new recruits.
Maruf criticized the Somali government’s decision to shift focus to constitutional reforms at a time when cohesive leadership was critical in the battle against insurgents. “The biggest loss may be the erosion of public trust in the government,” he warned.
Despite recent setbacks, Somali forces and local militias continue to control key areas across Hiran, Galgudud, and Mudug, including El-Dheer, Masagaway, and Harardhere. Analysts say a rebound is possible—if political support and military leadership are strengthened.
Regional and Global Support
Leaders from Djibouti, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Kenya reaffirmed support for Somalia’s stability. Egypt elevated its diplomatic ties with Somalia, while Kenya highlighted both operational and financial hurdles facing ATMIS.
AU Peace and Security Commissioner Amb. Bankole Adeoye stressed collective responsibility. Meanwhile, UNSOS head Aisha Keita urged better logistical support. The US, however, suggested exploring new financing models due to donor fatigue.
The meeting concluded with a unified call for swift reinforcements, improved coordination, and long-term funding, as Al-Shabaab’s resurgence poses a critical threat to Somalia’s fragile progress and regional peace.
